John Wheeler: More cold and snow in February, but a switch to warm and dry may be coming
If the pattern does flip this summer to warm and dry, the timing would be very important.
FARGO — Cold weather is coming later this week. In fact, the general pattern for February is starting to look much colder, with fewer fogs than we saw in January and much lower wind chills. It is not likely that the month will be entirely Arctic, but a few interjections of very cold air look likely. Cold winter patterns are also snowy more often than not, so we will likely be adding to the snow pack, something that has not happened during January.
Interestingly, most of the various analogs and connections to circulation patterns around the world point to a higher than average chance of a warm and dry summer. This kind of a major switch is by no means a certainty, but it would not be surprising to those familiar with long-range forecasting. If the pattern flips this summer to warm and dry, the timing would be very important. An early spring switch to dry weather would be a problem for agriculture.